Colorado’s defensive line tackles a Kansas State running back during the game on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, at Folsom Field. (Rebecca Schima/CU Independent)
Colorado football finally snapped its five-game losing streak with a 27-24 overtime win against Kansas State on Oct. 31. Now the Buffaloes have a chance to do something they have not done since September: win two games in a row.
The Buffaloes (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) travel to Tempe, Arizona, to face Arizona State (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) on Saturday, Nov. 7. With four games remaining, Colorado needs three wins to reach the six-victory mark typically required for bowl eligibility.
At first glance, Arizona State looks like a manageable opponent. The Sun Devils have a .500 record, an unsettled quarterback situation and a 27-20 loss to BYU last weekend. But Colorado has already learned that looking competitive on paper and actually winning a football game are two different things.
The numbers make Saturday’s matchup more interesting than either record suggests.
Similar numbers, different results
Colorado averages 396.4 yards of offense per game. Arizona State averages 395. A difference of 1.4 yards is hardly enough to declare one offense better than the other. Colorado even has a small advantage in passing yards, 256.4 per game to Arizona State’s 254.8, while the rushing averages are nearly identical at 140 and 140.3.
The difference appears when those yards turn into points.
Arizona State averages 29.5 points per game. Colorado averages 21, ranking 117th nationally in scoring offense. That is an 8.5-point gap despite both teams moving the ball nearly the same distance each Saturday.
For Colorado, gaining yards has not been the only issue. Actually doing something with them has proved considerably harder.
The defense offers another comparison. Arizona State allows 350 yards per game, while Colorado gives up 386.1. Yet both teams are allowing almost the same number of points: 29.5 for the Sun Devils and 29.4 for the Buffs.
Taken together, the numbers suggest Colorado is capable of keeping up with Arizona State. They also point to the problem that has followed the Buffaloes all season. Colorado has been reasonably productive between the 20-yard lines, but its final scores rarely reflect it.
Can Colorado’s running game carry over?
The clearest reason for optimism came against Kansas State, when Colorado rushed for 222 yards, its best total in three-plus seasons under head coach Deion Sanders. Richard Young carried the ball 24 times for 120 yards and two touchdowns, while JaQuail Smith added a 47-yard scoring run.
Quarterback Isaac Wilson completed 14 of 21 passes for 185 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, including an 11-yard pass to tight end Charlie Williams to win the game in overtime.
It was a noticeably different offensive approach from the previous week, when the Buffs rushed for just 56 yards in a 57-24 loss to Oklahoma State.
“The running attack was truly vital,” Sanders said after the Kansas State victory. He added that it took pressure off Wilson.
The concern is whether that running game can survive Arizona State’s defensive front. The Sun Devils allow 134 rushing yards per game and held BYU to just 47 last Saturday. They also limited Kansas State to 84 rushing yards in their previous matchup.
Those are not numbers that suggest Young will automatically repeat his 120-yard performance.
Arizona State also has 47 passes defended through eight games, tied for seventh nationally, and allows opponents to complete just 58.4% of their passes. If the Sun Devils stop the run early, Wilson could face the kind of obvious passing situations that have produced turnovers throughout Colorado’s losing streak.
Wilson’s season numbers explain why one clean game is not enough to ease concerns. He has thrown for 1,164 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in six appearances. Colorado’s quarterbacks have combined for 10 interceptions this season, with eight coming in the second half or overtime.
The passing splits are particularly revealing. Colorado has completed 70.6% of its throws in the first half, compared with 55.5% after halftime and in overtime. Two interceptions have come before halftime. Eight have come afterward.
Against Texas Tech, Colorado led 7-3 at halftime before throwing four interceptions and losing 29-7. Against Oklahoma State, the Buffs led 24-23 at the break before being outscored 34-0 in the second half.
At this point, Colorado’s halftime leads are starting to look more like temporary arrangements than actual advantages.
The problem has not always been finding a good half of football. It has been putting two together.
A young quarterback and a familiar face
Arizona State has its own offensive questions. Freshman Jake Fette made his first career start against BYU, completing 22 of 42 passes for 166 yards and two touchdowns. The Sun Devils trailed 17-3 at halftime before tying the score in the third quarter, ultimately falling 27-20.
Fette’s first start came behind an offensive line that has already used seven different starting combinations in eight games. For a Colorado defense averaging 8.25 tackles for loss per game, eighth nationally, that could create opportunities to pressure a young quarterback.
Linebacker Gideon Lampron leads the Buffs with 78 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Colorado recorded five sacks against Kansas State. A repeat performance would make life considerably harder for an Arizona State offense that converts only 30.9% of third downs, ranking 133rd nationally.
But the Sun Devils have another way to move the ball. Running back Cardae Mack rushed for 123 yards on 23 attempts against BYU and leads Arizona State with 523 yards and six rushing touchdowns.
If Colorado cannot stop Mack on first and second down, Fette may not have to take many chances downfield.
Arizona State also has one of the conference’s most productive receivers in Reed Harris, who has 48 catches for 804 yards and eight touchdowns. Colorado allows 249 passing yards per game, making its secondary an obvious target if the Sun Devils can protect Fette.
And there is one more familiar name on the Arizona State roster.
Former Colorado wide receiver Omarion Miller returns to this matchup after transferring to the Sun Devils in January. Miller led the Buffaloes with 45 catches, 808 yards and eight touchdowns in 2025. This season he has 41 receptions for 427 yards and three touchdowns for Arizona State.
Miller said he wanted a better fit for his final college season. His yards per catch have dropped from 18.0 at Colorado last year to 10.4 in Tempe. Apparently, the grass in Arizona is not greener, just hotter.
Still, Miller remains dangerous after the catch, with 272 yards after receptions this season. Colorado’s defense cannot afford to treat him like an afterthought, particularly with Harris commanding attention on the other side.
Mistakes could make the difference
Even if the Buffaloes manage to slow Arizona State’s offense, their own mistakes could decide the game.
Colorado enters Saturday with a minus-10 turnover margin, compared with Arizona State’s minus-two. The Buffs are also averaging 80.4 penalty yards per game, compared with 45.4 for the Sun Devils.
That difference of 35 penalty yards represents more than three first downs’ worth of field position each game.
Colorado has been remarkably generous with free yards this season, which is an interesting approach for a team that could use a few more of its own.
The Buffaloes committed eight penalties for 53 yards against Kansas State, which counted as an improvement. Against a team that has gone 11-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer since 2024, small mistakes carry a much bigger price.
The home-field advantage does not help Colorado either. Arizona State is 3-1 in Tempe this season while the Buffaloes are 1-3 away from Boulder.
The Sun Devils also lead the all-time series 11-4 and beat Colorado 42-17 last season. Colorado did win its most recent trip to Tempe, 27-24 in 2023.
So, can Colorado actually win?
Yes. Arizona State’s offense struggles on third down, its quarterback is inexperienced and its defense allows nearly 30 points a game. A team that can rush for 222 yards against Kansas State and generate five sacks has enough to make Saturday competitive.
But Colorado must do more than stay close for three quarters. It needs another productive game from Young, a clean performance from Wilson and fewer possessions erased by penalties or turnovers.
That is a demanding list for a team that has not won consecutive games since September.
Following Arizona State, Colorado faces Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. With bowl eligibility still mathematically possible, the Buffs can no longer afford to treat a competitive loss as encouraging progress.
Colorado has collected enough almost-wins this season. Unfortunately, those do not count toward bowl eligibility.
The Buffaloes have shown they can move the ball. Against Kansas State, they finally showed they can finish a game. The next step is proving those two things can happen on the same Saturday, more than once.
Colorado and Arizona State kick off at 5:30 p.m. MT Saturday, Nov. 7, at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe. The game will air on ESPN2.
Contact CU Independent Sports Editor Shruthi Rajesh at shra3446@colorado.edu
