The Colorado Buffaloes react to Drelon Miller making a touchdown during the game against the University of Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. (Clementine Miller/CU Independent)
The 2024 University of Colorado Buffaloes have the chance to do something entirely unprecedented. While the odds are stacked against them, they could end the season in the College Football Playoff.
During Coach Deion Sanders’ first season, the Buffs rode high the first three weeks. The team seemed unstoppable, ranked, and undefeated with College GameDay on campus and plenty of media hype.
However, that success quickly faded as Deion Sanders and his Buffs self-imploded, losing their final six games of the season. They finished 4-8, making them one of the most overhyped teams in recent memory.
Now, Sanders finds himself with a chance to salvage his FBS coaching career in 2024 and prove he can compete at the highest collegiate level. Following the Buffaloes’ loss last Saturday to Kansas, the road to reaching the Big 12 Championship and even the College Football Playoffs (CFP) is significantly more difficult, but still possible.
They had a simple road to win out before allowing 520 yards to Kansas last weekend. If they won their last three games, including the Big 12 Championship, the Colorado Buffaloes would be in the 2024 College Football Playoffs.
The Buffs fumbled the rare opportunity to control their destiny and now must rely on a couple of tiebreakers to advance to the conference title game.
The Road to the Big 12 Championship
Always Sunny in Philadelphia character Charlie Kelly explains a conspiracy theory to another character (IMDB)
First of all, they need to beat Oklahoma State on Friday. Everything else falls through if Colorado somehow chokes their 81% chance of winning via ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. It will be Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders’ final game at Folsom Field, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Over the last four weeks, the Big 12 has become the most chaotic conference in college football. Against all odds, nine teams still have an opportunity to make the championship game going into the final week of the season. Here is where it gets messy.
Assuming they beat Oklahoma State, the Buffs would finish 7-2 in conference play. That would mean they need two losses from either Arizona State, BYU, or Iowa State. All three teams are ranked and favored to win this weekend.
The two most likely for an upset are Iowa State losing to Kansas State or Arizona State to Arizona. BYU hosts Houston, but the Cougars have nearly a 90% chance to catch the victory.
There is a second scenario, however. If Houston miraculously beats BYU, all the Buffs would need is a win from Texas Tech over West Virginia. That seems far more achievable. The Red Raiders are 3.5-point favorites with a 57% chance to win.
Since Colorado beat Texas Tech earlier and BYU lost their third in a row, the list of tiebreakers would favor the Buffs to either face Iowa State or Arizona State in the title game.
Should the Buffs reach the Big 12 Championship, a win in AT&T Stadium would earn them an automatic bid to the 2024 College Football Playoff. Right?
The College Football Playoffs (If we even get let in)
A little-known rule gives first-round byes to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily the winners of the Power Four conferences. So, if certain scenarios unfold, teams like Boise State University or Tulane University could theoretically steal the fourth overall seed and secure a first-round bye.
If Colorado wins the Big 12 Championship, the Buffs are likely to earn a bye and be the fourth seed in the CFP. But lately, with all of the chaos and upsets in the Big 12, it is a real possibility that no team, including the conference champion, could be good enough to get a bid.
A lot of tiebreakers get decided by the selection committee, so the cards could fall into place where no Big 12 team makes an appearance.
The old Pac-12 is back together for some bowl games
But wait, there is more. Believe it or not, Colorado is still in eligibility for a Pac-12 bowl game. Although nearly every team left the conference last season, they still have bowl contracts with each team through 2025, so the Buffs could find themselves in familiar territory.
The Pac-12-affiliated bowls are the Independence, Alamo, Holiday, LA, Las Vegas and Sun Bowl. With the Buffs’ success, they would most likely play in the Alamo or Holiday Bowls. If they end up at the Alamo Bowl, they would play a Big 12 team and could face a rematch of a team they have played this season.
With just one more week to play in the regular season, the possibilities for the rest of the Buffaloes season seem incomprehensible. Before we can fantasize about the College Football Playoffs, the odds are still against the Buffs to even make the Big 12 title game.
Regardless of what happens this weekend, the Buffs are guaranteed a bowl appearance. For a team that hasn’t won a bowl game in 20 years, that’s a tremendous victory. The turnaround under Coach Prime has been remarkable, and now it’s time to see what this team is truly made of.|
Contact CU Independent football writer Baylan Wysuph at Baylan.Wysuph@Colorado.edu
